Probabilities

[Hum_35711]

Can everyone explain how they are figuring the probabilities on the dice throws. Because I have the creeping suspicion that my way is just plain wrong.

What I've been doing, is taking the number of favourable outcomes and dividing it by the total number of possible outcomes, which generally gives me way lower probabilities than the rest of you guys seem to get.

[Y2UAsk]

Yeah, that's not a valid way to determine probabilities.

The correct way is a binomial calculation. If you're not familiar with those, the best thing to do is google "binomial calculator." Quite a few exist on web pages, and they're easy to use. Just plug in how many dice you're rolling (the unit's attack value), the probability for success on each die (50% in most cases), and the number of successes you're looking for (the target's defense, or defense +1, or whatever). Then hit "calculate" and it spits back the percentage chance for that outcome to occur.

If you're familiar with Excel, it also contains a binomial function. You can calculate a whole page of iterations at once instead of doing them one at a time.

Steve

[Hum_35711]

Thanks, you guys are the best!

[Colonel_Coo]

Yeah, that's not a valid way to determine probabilities.

The correct way is a binomial calculation. If you're not familiar with those, the best thing to do is google "binomial calculator." Quite a few exist on web pages, and they're easy to use. Just plug in how many dice you're rolling (the unit's attack value), the probability for success on each die (50% in most cases), and the number of successes you're looking for (the target's defense, or defense +1, or whatever). Then hit "calculate" and it spits back the percentage chance for that outcome to occur.

If you're familiar with Excel, it also contains a binomial function. You can calculate a whole page of iterations at once instead of doing them one at a time.

Steve
Care to post one?