8 months later...

[nickc]

8 months later, I have the same confused gripe......

I look at the ladder, with a bid of 9, and I see the axis winning 50.8% of the time.

And I can't see how the axis can possibly win with a bid of 9.

a) US dominates Africa with as much force as needed
b) all 3 allies pin Germany back to nothing
c) Russia turns attention to Japan
d) Japan swells to $40-something, but too little, too late.

This just seems kind of foolproof to me.

(I'm talking out of the box rules here, assume no tech or sea lion).

There is one other piece of statisticry that might support this....if you look at the ladder, you will see that (nearly all of) the top players win more often with the Allies than with the Axis given this bid of 9.

[CrazyStraw]

Yup. In a domination game I think a bid of 11 is reasonable.

Good play with the Allies is difficult, but if your logistical game is strong, then they are a tough team to beat. Lesser-skilled players will not run the Allied shipping as competently, so you don't need as much bid against them.

It would be interesting to see what the upper-echelon players would bid in an open bid market. I'm sure 10 would be common and 11 wouldn't be rare.

Just my 2 cents.

[squirecam]

8 months later, I have the same confused gripe......

I look at the ladder, with a bid of 9, and I see the axis winning 50.8% of the time.

And I can't see how the axis can possibly win with a bid of 9.



Obviously, people are winning with a bid of 9. So how can you dispute that many games???

Squirecam

[nickc]

Obviously, people are winning with a bid of 9. So how can you dispute that many games???

Squirecam

clarification: teach me how to win as axis, it seems impossible. Do you buy nothing but infantry for Germany and play ultimate turtle ?

[GSH34]

Being a mod at the TripleA WarClub, I feel the need to say something. I am pretty proud of how well our little endevour has turned out after all. :)

As of right now, there have been 1364 games played with a 50.8% Axis win percentage as nickc says.
693 Axis wins.
671 Allied wins.

For those not familiar with our little operation, we have a fixed bid of 9 ipc to the Axis. When a challenge is issued, you actually play two games. One as the Axis, and one as the Allies against the same opponent.

If you are curious what an open bid amount would be among two highly qualified opponents, you could check with any of the other pbem clubs that play. I'm sure you could start an intersting post at their sites about this topic. We are the only ones who use a fixed bid/two game challenge format. Everyone else uses open bidding.

I don't think there is any real difference between a 9, 10, or 11 bid. The dice variability in the open round is far more critical than an extra two ipc bid. [disclaimer: I've spent no time thinking about what extra advantage an 11 ipc bid may give the Axis over a 9 ipc]

I've also heard no complaints about the bid amount. On the contrary, people like how balanced the games are at that bid level. I know I do.

I just hope you enjoying playing at TripleA.
GSH34

[CrazyStraw]

Without doubt Triple A is set up well. Having the bid at 9 seems to be a very good amount for the general ladder, and I like the 1-game-each-side method.

So my comments are CERTAINLY no criticism of Triple A; it does what it is supposed to do, and it does it well.

My point is simply that the highest caliber players may be able to use the Allies more effectively than the relative newcomers to the game. I suspect that would lead to a higher bid for the Allies in top games.

I think the general bid thresholds of interest (with 1pc/territory) are 6, 8, 11, and 12. The big steps are 8 and 11. 8 is a boat or 1tnk 1inf for Africa. 11 is a boat and an inf.

I bet if the bid was comletely free floating you would end up with 10 being the most common bid with 9 and 11 showing up regularly.

Keeping the play-each-side requirement is an excellent way to track the balance of the bid. It will be interesting to see what the stats look like in another year.

Peace

[nickc]

Okay, being a mild stathead, I HAVE to ask the following:

1) Some games are low luck, and some are not. It seems to me that if the 9 bid were off, that it would show up more (to some degree) in low luck games. So I would be interested in a breakdown of data between low luck and regular.

2) More importantly, I would be interested in a breakdown against strong/good/fair/poor opponents. It's a circular argument but college football does it very well....use some breakdown scheme to determine your ladder rankings. I suppose ultimately I/we are most interested in the axis success in strong vs. strong games.

But my main point (this thread) continues to be that I and the guys I play with have a huge mental block against the axis w/9. The allies win every single time. The USA always goes Atlantic.

[newpaintbrush]

I actually figure upper-echelon players would very possibly standardize the bid at MORE than 11 IPC.

I also wonder how it is possible that Axis have won more than 50% of the games, even with a bid of 9 preplaced.

Oh well, back to the drawing board . . . have to draw up more plans for the Axis.

[smo63]

clarification: teach me how to win as axis, it seems impossible. Do you buy nothing but infantry for Germany and play ultimate turtle ?
nickc,

Sorry, I can not show you how to win with the Axis on the AAA site, but if you are willing to play FTF, then, I would love to...! And that is getting, what CS, 8? You know I am just joshin' with you...

GS:)

[CrazyStraw]

Hey GS.

Yup, I believe with 8 you could do it. As I recall your favorite 8 bid is a guy on the Solomons and an extra AA gun on Tokyo "just to be sure"?

:p

[squirecam]

Hey GS.

Yup, I believe with 8 you could do it. As I recall your favorite 8 bid is a guy on the Solomons and an extra AA gun on Tokyo "just to be sure"?

:p

This is only because you caspian fools wont allow 2 units to be placed in the same country. Otherwise, Greg would place the aa gun in the solomons as well.

Squirecam

[CrazyStraw]

Actually, the BEST bid is to place a sub in the Caspian Sea. But that's illegal in this version of the game.

[squirecam]

Actually, the BEST bid is to place a sub in the Caspian Sea. But that's illegal in this version of the game.

Because it was overpowered. :)

Squirecam

[smo63]

How 'bout we just all hold hands and sing "Kumbaya" for one moment please...

Peace,
GS:)

[newpaintbrush]

kumbayaaaa

[Yoper]

How 'bout we just all hold hands and sing "Kumbaya" for one moment please...

Peace,
GS:)

The only thing more painful than looking at Squirecam would be listening to him sing! :eek:

Craig ;)

[smo63]

The only thing more painful than looking at Squirecam would be listening to him sing! :eek:

Craig ;)

He could just hum a few bars of that particular tune?

GS:)

[GSH34]

Okay, being a mild stathead, I HAVE to ask the following:

1) Some games are low luck, and some are not. It seems to me that if the 9 bid were off, that it would show up more (to some degree) in low luck games. So I would be interested in a breakdown of data between low luck and regular.

2) More importantly, I would be interested in a breakdown against strong/good/fair/poor opponents. It's a circular argument but college football does it very well....use some breakdown scheme to determine your ladder rankings. I suppose ultimately I/we are most interested in the axis success in strong vs. strong games.

But my main point (this thread) continues to be that I and the guys I play with have a huge mental block against the axis w/9. The allies win every single time. The USA always goes Atlantic.


Hey nickc,

These are good questions.

1.) When we decided on a fixed 9 bid, the ladder was standard luck. LL was added later. I have only played two LL games in my life (massive losses in both) and have no idea if a 9 bid to the Axis even comes close to balancing a LL game. Our stats are not as specific as you request. LL and standard games are lumped together, so I have no way of breaking it down any further than total won/loss records.

2.) See #1. We only keep general stats. Unable to break them down any further with out Clausewitz reprogramming the ladder. It won't happen just for the stats you are looking for.

3.) One thing to consider too is that most games are PBEM. For some reason, I will play differently in a PBEM game than a FTF game. I'm more willing to take risks in a PBEM game (maybe because I don't actually see the opponent?) and try out different things that I normally wouldn't do FTF. For this reason, I think I am actually a better FTF player. Maybe this factors into some of the games too and could help explain the Axis having a higher win percentage?

GSH34

[nickc]

Thanks for all the replies.

My conclusion, at this point, is: I'm not sure. Maybe if I work on KGF counters, I'll start to have more faith in that bid of 9.....certainly understand that my angle is one of "the experts are telling me the bid should be 9, I need to hear more and understand why" and not "these guys don't know what they are talking about".

[smo63]

nickc,

You are correct, some need to be a bit more serious but then again, I was. I don't play the ladder and was serious when saying if you want to play FTF I would love to show you.

What this means is that there is NOT one set way that works better than the other. You must always take into account, the bid, where it is placed, what your opponent does on T1, etc. KGF works as well as KJF. It just depends on how well executed the plans are and making sure one does not make mistakes. Everything can be countered and one just make sure they don't get to cocky...

AA is a numbers game. If you take a calculated risk, that is fine but make sure it does not cost one the game...all attack with the advantage. There are some times when one can go in with about equal units and hope for some luck, but if one does this, then they really aren't good players. Luck should NEVER be factored into playing AA. Especially if one wants to better their game...If you are playing for 100% fun, then go ahead...roll for techs all you want!

GS:)

[squirecam]

He could just hum a few bars of that particular tune?

GS:)


Very well.

dun-da-dun-dun-dun..

"We're from.. the town with.. the great football team..." :)

Squirecam