Statistical Study: Iowa vs Tone/Myoko/Myoko

[Jaels]

Since some people seemed interested in the results, here is what happens if an Iowa battleship takes on a Tone and two Myoko cruisers.

Engagement rules were as follow:

- Fight starts at range 3, goes to range 2 in round 2, and at range one for later rounds.
- Iowa fires on the Tone first, then the two Myokos.
- The Myokos use their Night Fire bonus on their main battery for round 3 (let's say they spend one turn closing in) if they don't get any hit, otherwise they keep it for a later round.

Here are the results for 500000 engagements:

Tone intact, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 18 0.0%
Tone damaged, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 850 0.2%
Tone damaged, Myoko damaged, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 72 0.0%
Tone crippled, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 2671 0.5%
Tone crippled, Myoko damaged, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 2104 0.4%
Tone crippled, Myoko crippled, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 18 0.0%
Tone crippled, Myoko destroyed, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 6 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 6355 1.3%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 5468 1.1%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 2 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 21 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 9535 1.9%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 9824 2.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 652 0.1%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 42 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 1901 0.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 3502 0.7%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 936 0.2%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 57 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 12204 2.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 34493 6.9%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 24928 5.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa intact: 41853 8.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa damaged: 279732 55.9%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa crippled: 43567 8.7%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 19189 3.8%

As we can see, the likeliest result by far is for all three Japanese ships to be destroyed and the Iowa sustaining between 1 and 4 damage. Overall, the results are as follow:

Japanese victory: 115659 23.1%
American victory: 365152 73.0%
Draw: 19189 3.8%

Now if we let the engagement start at range 4, things improves for the Iowa, especially the chances of getting out of the conflict without suffering any damage:

Tone intact, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 25 0.0%
Tone damaged, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 828 0.2%
Tone damaged, Myoko damaged, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 2 0.0%
Tone crippled, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 2742 0.5%
Tone crippled, Myoko damaged, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 48 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 7195 1.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 2963 0.6%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 1 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 6 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 6913 1.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 4465 0.9%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 212 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 15 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 1354 0.3%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 1414 0.3%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 260 0.1%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 12 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 12189 2.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 26899 5.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 17042 3.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa intact: 83563 16.7%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa damaged: 281837 56.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa crippled: 36666 7.3%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 13349 2.7%
Japanese victory: 84585 16.9%
American victory: 402066 80.4%
Draw: 13349 2.7%

Finally, here are the results if the engagement starts at range 5:

Tone intact, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 26 0.0%
Tone damaged, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 839 0.2%
Tone crippled, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 2733 0.5%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 7359 1.5%
Tone destroyed, Myoko intact, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 61 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 4924 1.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 922 0.2%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 4 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko damaged, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 3 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 2010 0.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 466 0.1%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 41 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko crippled, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 2 0.0%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko intact, Iowa destroyed: 10977 2.2%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko damaged, Iowa destroyed: 17140 3.4%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko crippled, Iowa destroyed: 8627 1.7%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa intact: 148421 29.7%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa damaged: 264469 52.9%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa crippled: 23969 4.8%
Tone destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Myoko destroyed, Iowa destroyed: 7007 1.4%
Japanese victory: 56134 11.2%
American victory: 436859 87.4%
Draw: 7007 1.4%

Here the Iowa has an overwhelming advantage, often able to sink one or two cruisers before they get in range, and getting out of the skirmish unscatted about a third of the time!

JL

[polar]

Nice.

Seems like extended range can be a nice feature. Without it the japanese would have a decent shot of winning.

[horacus]

Well, the Iowa is a monster.

[dracos42]

Battleships are good for smashing things. And one of the things the Iowas were designed for was smashing heavy cruisers. Given the Iowa's speed compared to the heavy cruisers, she could keep the range open for a long time and smash the cruisers with long range fire. It will be interesting to see the full rules on movement.

Mike L.

[dictator_wanna_be]

I cant wait to see the probability for say bombers on battleships!

[Diamondback]

Battleships are good for smashing things. And one of the things the Iowas were designed for was smashing heavy cruisers. ...

Mike L.

Hit and run with a sniper-battleship, you want an Iowa. If you're gonna get up close and personal, though, you really want a Montana.

That said, get an Iowa past the planes and even a heavy carrier's just meat on the table...

[XAos]

Adding up those probabilities I get that even in the worse case for Iowa. i.e. no shooting at extended range;
73% Iowa wins
4% it's a draw.
23% Iow looses

Considering that the Japanses cruiser cost 71 points to Iowas 68. And the Long-lance (+1 damage) makes the Japanese cruisers better against battleships than most others. I'd have hoped to see something closer to;
45% Cruisers win
15% draw
40% Iowa wins

[Sean-Khan]

I guess you shouldn't go after Iowa with fleet of cruisers :)

[XAos]

I'd guess you shouldn't go after any battleship with any cruisers.
Admitedly we have only seen 2 battleships (of 12)
But we have previews of 6 (of 15) cruisers.
Since Cruisers have no ASW & lowish AA (except Atlanta)
That leaves their only game function to attack detroyers or MTB's. Using them for anything else is going to be desperation.
Of course a squadron of cruisers would love to beat on a Carrier. But first they would have to get past the enemy fleet.
The only likly exception from the remaining cruisers is Jintsu which could be considered a large destroyer, rather than a small cruiser. Kitikami or Oi if they are in a future expansion, should definately be exceptions. 40xLong Lance torpedos will sink any battleship.

[polar]

I do agree to XOs.

Iowa seems very powerfull compered to heavy cruisers. But if the IOWA was designed to take out heavy cruisers, ...

[Ballshot]

Battleships are good for smashing things. And one of the things the Iowas were designed for was smashing heavy cruisers. Given the Iowa's speed compared to the heavy cruisers, she could keep the range open for a long time and smash the cruisers with long range fire. It will be interesting to see the full rules on movement.

Mike L.

I haven't gotten into the stats and probabilities of the naval units yet but I'm wondering about the whole ranged fire issue. In AAM, extended range 10 or 12 is an expensive ability but rarely does in come into play. Since there is no "fog of war", it always seems easy enough to rush the normal range tanks in close before any firing occurs with extended range never coming into play. In a typical 4 Sherman Swarm taking on 1 Tiger, you would think that at least 1 Sherman should be taken out prior to ever being able to get a shot off, another when the Shermans fire is ineffective and finally 2 slugging it out at close range. I've never seen that happen. Usually the Shermans have all closed to at least medium if not short range before the shooting starts signaling the doom for the Tiger.

I know that terrain won't come into play on the open sea like it does in AAM, but I still wonder if it won't be easy enough to stay out of the BB's range and then close so that firing is done at short range negating a lot of the power of the BB.

Again, I don't know much about mechanics yet but I hope my "Tiger" Battleship won't fall easy prey to the "Sherman" Cruiser Swarm.

[Muenchausen]

I think this largely depends on who moves first. If you have a battleship and your pounding enemy cruisers at range, when the other player moves towards you then all you have to do is move away. But it is imperative your opponent moves first.

[TheJudge]

Wow, it sounds like cruisers suck against one good ship if the rules and numbers are correct. Throw in the fact that several of the cruisers are rare and it seems like wasted money. Swell.

Iowa with some destroyers ought to be a wrecking crew but then you have planes to deal with.

This game doesn't sound all that great at 100 points but 200 points + ought to be a blast. no pun intended.

[XAos]

Again, I don't know much about mechanics yet but I hope my "Tiger" Battleship won't fall easy prey to the "Sherman" Cruiser Swarm.
It's more likly to be a "sherman destroyer swarm". Destroyers have just as many torpedo tubes as a cruiser & clearly have the "sherman advantage" of being able to fight anything in the game.
And I agree, I hope the Fletcher class DD doesn't turn out to be an uber-cheap "sherman".

[shousa]

It's more likly to be a "sherman destroyer swarm". Destroyers have just as many torpedo tubes as a cruiser & clearly have the "sherman advantage" of being able to fight anything in the game.
And I agree, I hope the Fletcher class DD doesn't turn out to be an uber-cheap "sherman".

I'm sure the balancing factor for destroyers will be that anything in the game (even air-to-air fighters with some luck) can kill them, and that torpedo attacks can be thwarted if your destroyers die to gunnery or bomb attacks before the torpedo phase comes up. In order to make a successful torpedo run, you may need more ships than the enemy has gunery and bomb attacks in order to assure that some get through. On the other hand, you could try using big decoys to ensure that your torpedo boats get through but I don't know if that would be advisable based on the limited information we have.

[Photoner Hawkwind]

Has anyone calculated if planes will have the advantage in the game that they had during the war against ships?

[XAos]

The only planes we have stats for are fighters.
Which makes it impossible to calculate how cost-effective bombers will be.
I did calculate the effect of intercepting fighters V's bombers which are escourted. Depending on the armour of the bomber. The odds for the fighter to abort it are;
armour
1. 94%. 96%. 97%
2. 74%. 81%. 86%
3. 43%. 53%. 62%
4. 17%. 26%. 35%
5. 5%. 9%. 14%
6. 1%. 2%. 4%
The first % is for an AA-7 fighter. (Zeke or Wildcat)
the 2nd is for AA-8 (i.e. fighter with carrier+1 bonus)
3rd is Wildcat "defending a flattop".
The odds drop off severly against moderate armour (4+).
So if the bomber's armor is 4 or higher. The primary AA defense will be from ships. Which arn't affected by "escourting" fighters. That makes CL-Atlanta one of the best ships in the game. Because it has two attacks with "AA-Specialist".

Advanced rules now available; P.32
Note, however, that regardless of any penalties, an attack die that comes up as a
“natural” 6 always counts as:
• two successes if you’re making an Antiair, Gunnery, Bomb, or ASW attack;
So infact AA by fighters against escourted bombers scores 2-hits on a 6. Not the 1-hit I assumed from the wording of "escourt".
So the odds table doesn't have the sharp "knee-point" at armor-4.